The NBA Free Agency began a little over 24 hours ago and while it may be weird to say this, but the unpredictability of this year’s off-season, has been pretty predictable.
While Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and LeBron James have yet to verbally agree on a contract with any of their potential suitors – deals can only be signed starting July 8 – some big names have already shaken hands. Memphis Grizzlies Rudy Gay agreed to a five year, $80 million contract, and Atlanta Hawks Joe Johnson is expected to sign a deal worth $121 million for six years, according news outlets such as USA Today and ESPN.
In my opinion, those are two very bad deals. Johnson is simply not worth that much. He will be making as much as James, a two-time MVP, would stand to make if he stayed with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Johnson was barely able to get the Hawks past a Milwaukee Bucks team missing their best player, in this year’s playoffs. And he basically gave up against the Orlando Magic in the second round.
With Gay, my main problem with is that for the money Memphis is giving him, will he be able to get them to playoffs, let alone to a championship. I don’t even think Gay is the best player on his team – that designation would go to Zach Randolph, unfortunately. That’s an NBA GM for you.
Even with those horrendous deals, Gay and Johnson have had a massive effect on the NBA market. There are five places looking to land at least two high-caliber players in this year’s free agency: Chicago Bulls, L.A. Clippers, Miami Heat, New Jersey Nets and New York Knickerbockers. Each of those teams had Johnson on their list as a backup plan if they weren’t able to land James, Wade or Bosh. With Wade trying to recruit players to the Heat, he’s eliminates himself from the discussion. That leaves Bosh or James. There are two other high-caliber stars who are two notches beneath James and Bosh: Carlos Boozer and Amare Stoudemire, but one is undersized and sucks on defense and the other has had several knee surgeries and is allergic to defense.
One of these teams is going to get royally screwed this year and it may end up being the Heat – the Knicks were destined to take a humongous L this off season. The Heat currently have two players under contract. Both of those players come courtesy of the 2008 NBA Draft, one Mario Chalmers and the indescribable Michael Beasley. If they aren’t able to get two legitimate stars next to Wade, I think he bails. I predict that James will probably go to the Bulls or remain a Cavalier, while Bosh will either land in Chicago, maybe with James, or elsewhere. But, even if Bosh were to go to Miami with Wade, that would be far from enough to compete at a championship level and Wade knows this.
Out of all the top free agents, Wade has been the only one to adamantly say that he plans to remain with his team. With that said, I think Wade has played the free agency as shrewdly as possible. He has appeared to be loyal to the team who has drafted him, while still testing free agency. Today he met with the Bulls, in Chicago, to hear their pitch, even though a couple months back he disparaged their owner for not taking care of his former players.
I believe Wade will wait to see what James does and definitely what Bosh does. Because if those two don’t end up in South Beach, I don’t think he will settle for Boozer or Stoudemire. Which leaves the door open for Wade to go to the Nets and become the face of the eventual Brooklyn squad or even beat Bosh and James to the punch by getting a deal done with Chicago, his hometown. Wade has been playing chess, while the other free agents have been playing checkers. We'll have to wait a couple of days to see if he goes for the checkmate.
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